The biggest disappointment for Akhilesh Yadav in the Samajwadi Party's terrible election performance in Uttar Pradesh in 2017, when the party won only 47 seats, was that the BJP won 23 of the 29 seats in the state's 'Yadav Belt' of eight districts. From Firozabad to Kannauj, the Agra-Lucknow Expressway, which Akhilesh completed during his tenure as Chief Minister, connects these eight districts.
Visiting these districts to determine the election's barometer indicates a concerted attempt by the Samajwadi Party to reclaim its bastion. "It was a tidal wave election." The tidal wave has passed. We're all voting for SP once more. "There was a misunderstanding in the family before, but now everything is well," Malkhan Singh says while playing cards at the Yadav family's Saifai village in Etawah.
After a family reconciliation, Akhilesh is contesting from the neighbouring Karhal seat, while his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav is contesting from Jaswantnagar, reviving the Samajwadi Party's fortunes in the 'Yadav Belt.'
However, as you get closer to Kannauj on the Expressway, the storey begins to shift. This area is also known as UP's 'potato belt.'
Mangal Singh is busy packing his potato crop while praising the BJP and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. "For my harvest, I earn roughly Rs 450 per quintal... we do make a profit." However, because the larger problem is our national security and interest, people are leaning toward the BJP. This area used to be a bastion for the SP, but that is no longer the case "he declares
Anita, who is harvesting potatoes in another field, says she will vote for Narendra Modi. "We'll vote for the person who provides us with meals and keeps us safe," says one voter "she explains.
Locals in the Yadav belt, where young guys on motorcycles wearing red caps are common, frequently say the phrase: "Ab Ladai Suraksha Aur Samman Ke Beech Hai (The war is between security and pride)." Some point to chronic lawlessness under the SP regime, while others claim that the Yadavs have been defamed and humiliated by Yogi Adityanath's 'Thakurvaad Sarkar.'
On Tuesday, while campaigning in Kannauj, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said that the state will soon begin procuring potato crops at MSP, a move that the BJP thinks will rally farmers to its side.
70 Seats and 14 Districts
There are 14 districts in the state that span roughly 70 seats, with 59 of them voting in Phase 3 on Sunday, February 20. This includes the 'Yadav Belt,' Kanpur's urban and rural seats, Unnao, and the politically sensitive district of Lakhimpur, where farmers were driven over by a BJP minister's son's convoy.
In 2017, the BJP won 49 of the 59 seats up for election in Phase 3, while the SP had to settle for only eight. BSP and Congress each received one seat.
SP, on the other hand, appears to be working hard to reclaim a position of power in this area, building on what it refers to as "the good momentum of the first two phases." "and the BJP, which is adamant about not giving up its 2017 and 2019 victories by promoting 'good law and order.'
"The voter is now aware of who is who and what they are voting for." The borders between castes are eroding. Some Yadavs are also leaning towards the BJP "Nitin Kumar, a youth from Kannauj, told Sources that BJP candidate and former IPS officer Asim Arun will win the seat in his first election.
In fact, Arun's instance may illustrate that in many seats, candidate selection may be the key to success for either the BJP or the SP. In the Sirasgunj seat in Firozabad, where the Samajwadi Party won the lone seat in the Firozabad district in 2017, its nominee Hariom Yadav, a close member, is now the BJP's candidate.
As the third round of the UP Assembly elections approaches, It has been discovered that people are no longer silent and are speaking up about local issues. While some people are content with free rations and Kisan Samman Nidhi programmes, others are frustrated up with stray animals ruining their crops. "Take a look at these stray cattle." Farmers in Etah district have to watch their fields all night," says Sobharam Yadav.
In contrast to urban regions, one does not hear much about themes like nationalism in the rural belt, but government projects for villages during Covid-19 seem to be well received.
Some X-factors, such as the Lakhimpur farmers' problem, which saw Ashish Mishra, the son of a Union Minister, granted bail in the disputed case, may have an impact on the dynamics here, even though the BJP remains in the lead. Women's rights violations have dominated news in Unnao, although they are absent from political rhetoric during elections.
Many seats in Kanpur are seeing a heated battle between the BJP and the SP, however the former has sent in all of its major guns to campaign to quell any disruption.
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