A recent incident on a London-Singapore flight, where severe turbulence resulted in one death and injuries to 30 people, highlights a growing issue linked to climate change: rising air turbulence. Research indicates that the skies have become "bumpier" over the past 40 years, with a 55% increase in annual turbulence over the North Atlantic from 1979 to 2020.
Researchers from the University of Reading, UK, report that moderate turbulence increased by 37%, and light turbulence by 17%. This increase is not limited to the North Atlantic but also affects routes over the US, Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic. The primary cause is greater wind shear in the jet stream, which results from temperature differences between the equator and the poles. This phenomenon is exacerbated by the upper atmosphere warming faster in the tropics than in polar regions due to greenhouse emissions.
Turbulence is caused by disruptions in airflow and can occur due to various factors, including atmospheric pressure, jet streams, and flying over mountains or storms. Clear-air turbulence, which occurs under clear skies, is particularly concerning because it is invisible and unpredictable. While severe turbulence remains rare, it is expected to increase over time.
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Isabel Smith, a researcher at the University of Reading, explains that the growing temperature gap between polar regions and the tropics increases wind shear in the jet streams. This, in turn, creates more turbulent air patches. By 2050, summers may become as turbulent as winters were in 1950.
The researchers emphasize the importance of investing in improved turbulence forecasting and detection systems to mitigate the impact of rougher air on flights. Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist and co-author of the study, stresses that evidence now suggests the increase in turbulence has already begun.
The aviation sector itself is a significant contributor to global emissions, accounting for 2% of global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2022. Climate change poses various threats to air travel, including the risk of flooding at coastal airports, difficulty for planes to take off in warmer air, increased risk of lightning strikes, longer flight times due to shifting jet streams, and increased clear-air turbulence.
A separate study by Climate Central in 2023 highlighted these disruptions, urging immediate action to address the challenges posed by a warming planet.
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