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Since June 1, rainfall across India has been 20% below average, with a significant 68% deficit in northwest India. The monsoon's progress has stalled since June 11, with heavy to very heavy rains expected in Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Assam-Meghalaya due to cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam and strong winds from the Bay of Bengal. Similar conditions are forecasted for Sikkim, with moderate rainfall initially, followed by heavy rains from June 20-22.

Cyclonic circulations and regional rainfall

A cyclonic circulation over the Northeast Arabian Sea near Saurashtra and the Westcentral Bay of Bengal near Coastal Andhra Pradesh is expected to bring light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning to Gujarat, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathwada over the next five days. Heavy rains are anticipated in Konkan & Goa, the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra from June 18-21, and Gujarat on June 20-21.

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In Kerala, an increase in rainfall is expected by June 21-22. The IMD has issued an orange alert for heavy rains in the northern districts of Malappuram, Kozhikode, and Kannur on June 21, with a yellow alert in six other districts. For June 22, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Kannur, and Kasaragod are under orange alert, and eight other districts are under yellow alert. These alerts indicate expectations of very heavy to heavy rainfall due to strong westerly and southwesterly winds.

Heat wave conditions in North India

While heavy rainfall is anticipated in some regions, heat wave conditions are expected in several northern and central states. Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Bihar, Jammu-Kashmir, and north Coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience high temperatures, especially on June 18 and 19. The IMD advises people in these areas to take precautions against the heat.

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Overall, India is experiencing a mixed bag of weather conditions with delayed monsoon progress, heavy rains in certain areas, and heat waves in others. The IMD continues to monitor and update forecasts to keep the public informed and prepared.