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US election night is like a jigsaw puzzle where results appear one piece at a time, making it hard to see the complete picture. As counties report their vote totals, early results can show one candidate in the lead, but those numbers may change later. This fluctuation happens for various reasons, including how and when different types of votes are counted.

Vote counting patterns

In recent elections, mail-in votes have often favored Democrats. For example, in Florida, early results show mail-in ballots first, which tend to lean Democratic. As Election Day votes come in later, Republicans usually start to gain ground. In the 2022 Senate race, Democrat Val Demings had an early lead in Broward County, but Republican Marco Rubio ultimately won the election.

Each state has its own rules for counting votes. In Virginia, smaller Republican-leaning counties report their results early, while Democratic-leaning cities report later. In Georgia, absentee ballots are counted on Election Day, often giving Democrats an early advantage, followed by a long wait for additional results.

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In Ohio, mail-in votes reported first gave Democrat Tim Ryan an early lead, but Republican JD Vance eventually won after Election Day votes were counted. In North Carolina, early results also showed a Democratic lead that quickly changed as more votes were tallied.

Pennsylvania's initial vote counts leaned Democratic due to mail-in ballots, but as more rural and Election Day votes were counted, Republican Mehmet Oz closed the gap. 

The role of Geography and timing

In Wisconsin and Michigan, how counties report their results can affect the outcome. For instance, in Wisconsin, cities like Milwaukee report Election Day votes before mail-in ballots, making it harder to predict the final result. In Michigan, waiting for significant votes from key areas, like Wayne County, is crucial to understanding a close race.

Arizona waits an hour after polls close to report results, and early updates typically favor Democrats. However, late-arriving mail ballots can swing in favor of Republicans, creating an unpredictable outcome.