Number Theory reveals Caste Dynamics ahead of 2024 Haryana Elections

Haryana lacks data on the population shares of different castes, making it difficult to assess their representation in the political landscape. The state is set to hold assembly elections on October 5, and candidate lists were finalized after the nomination withdrawal deadline on September 16. The upcoming elections are expected to be a direct contest between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition Congress party.

Key political context

In the recent 2024 general elections, both the BJP and Congress secured five Lok Sabha constituencies each, indicating a competitive political environment. For the assembly elections, both parties have nominated candidates in 89 out of the 90 assembly constituencies. The Congress party has allocated the Bhiwani constituency to its alliance partner, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M). Meanwhile, the BJP has chosen to withdraw its candidate from the Sirsa constituency to support independent candidate Gopal Kanda.

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This election will test the political dynamics in Haryana, particularly as both major parties seek to capture the votes of different castes without having concrete data on their distribution. Voter turnout and caste alignment will be crucial in determining the outcome. As the election date approaches, both parties will focus on their campaign strategies to secure a win in this important state.