Bengal By-Poll Results and Important Takeaways

West Bengal By-poll results for the one Lok Sabha (Asansol) and one assembly (Ballygunge) seat were announced on April 16.BJP faced a major setback failing to secure even one seat whereas TMC put forth a spectacular performance wresting the Asansol seat from the Saffron party and retaining its Ballygunge seat. Veteran actor-turned-politician Shatrughan Sinha, TMC's Candidate in Asansol, got over 56%, while Agnimitra Paul, as the BJP candidate, received over 30% votes. The Asansol victory is historic as it was the first victory of a TMC candidate from Asansol since the creation of this Lok Sabha constituency.

In Ballygunge,Babul Supriyo, the TMC candidate and past BJP member, defeated his nearest rival of the CPI(M) Saira, Shah Halim, by a margin of 20,228 votes. Supriyo won the seat despite his electoral campaign of being halted by a "no vote for Supriyo" protests undertaken by some groups in the constituency. Supriyo secured 51,199 votes against Halim's 30,971 votes whereas BJP's Keya Ghosh got only 13,220 votes.

The BJP's electoral performance in the state has been dismal right from the Assembly polls in May last year despite the huge electoral campaigning by the party heavyweights. The most striking part about the by-poll result was the Left party's performance.

The Left quite literally came from the dread in this by-poll season slipping the BJP to the third position in the Ballygunge seat. In the last polls, the BJP was in the second place in Ballygunge and secured 21% votes, which has now been reduced to just 13%. The Left made big gains with its vote share rising to 30% from 6% in 2021. The CPI(M) reclaiming its second position in Ballygunge has put the BJP in quite a vulnerable position since now it has to face more competition.

The community party's claim that it was on a revival path is debatable since the party is still reeling from the rout it faced in the last Assembly polls in Bengal. However, if the Left tries to overcome its setbacks and manages to wrest back its vote base, then the BJP's dreams of forming a Government or let alone being the main opposition party in West Bengal would be in serious trouble. 

Despite TMC securing both the seats, the Left securing the second place should act as a warning bell for Mamta Banerjee's party that warrants introspection into steps it needs to take to shake off the "voters' dilemma" before it draws out plans for the 2024 general elections. Analysts have also pointed out that many Muslim votes in the Ballygunge area went to the Left and not to Babul, which indicates that if TMC aspires to keep the winning spree going without any major bumps, the party has to keep an eye on its minority votes.

BJP in order to regain its lost ground, should find ways to detach the outsider tag and attach itself more to the Bengali identity and culture. The organizational cadre of BJP Bengal should be strengthened and a more friendly relationship with State Leaders and the Centre, as defections to the TMC has proved to be a major setback for the saffron party. Take Babul Supriyo, for e.g., a two-time BJP MP who now won the Ballygunge seat on a TMC ticket left BJP when his relationship with the party's top leadership turned sour, and he was finally dropped from the Union Cabinet. This was the same person who helped the BJP retain its Asansol seat in 2019 by defeating Trinamool's Moon Moon Sen by a huge margin of 1.97 lakh votes.

The by-poll election results in West Bengal screams of TMC's resurgence, Left's possible resurgence, and BJP's continuing downward spiral in the state. The important takeaway from the results is that BJP has a lot to work on, and TMC should further introspect its relationship with minority groups, and the Left should pen out an electoral strategy banking on the Bengal voter's "voter dilemma."