How does Hardik Patel’s defection affect key political players in Gujarat

Leader of Patidar agitation and former Congress working President bid adieu to the grand old party and joined the saffron party on June 2. His defection to ideologically contrasting BJP from Congress comes with its own set of after effects. First his defection cemented Congress’s already losing ground in the state. The fact that Patel's exit comes just 3 days after the Congress concluded its Chintan Shivir, which is supposed to have laid the ground for the party's revival indicates Congress’ deteriorating political clout in the state. Losing a key leader like Hardik Patel in a poll-bound state is bound to affect Congress’s electoral performance.

His defection coupled with OBC leader Alpesh Thakor shifting to the BJP, is bound to affect Congress’s potential to attract the young vote base. With this defection, Congress will now have to put extra efforts into wooing the previously ignored Dalit/Adivasi vote base including the Koli community. The impact of the defection won’t be severe on Congress if it becomes successful in bringing Leuva Patel leader and philanthropist Naresh Patel into its fold now. Naresh Patel is an emerging politician in the state whose politics is very similar to that of Hardik’s as they both strive to get the best possible deal for their community.

A look at Hardik Patel’s political capital in the state is indicative of its decreasing political clout. During the Patidar reservation agitation and in the 2017 Assembly elections he had a huge following among the Patidar youth. After joining the Congress and in the 20i9 Lok Sabha Election, Congress and him faced a major drubbing with BJP reasserting its political dominance by winning election with a huge year. His 3 year stint at the Congress wasn’t devoid of problems. To start with the Patidar community historically hasn’t always sided with the Congress and it was a humungous task for Hardik to bring the Patidar community under Congress’ roof. He wasn’t always satisfied with his position in the party despite being made the working president in 2020.The constant back and forth between him and top leadership along with his decreasing ability to get Patidar community to shift to the Congress made the defection a much more easier task for him.

His shift to BJP which was a party that he has been vociferous critic of to say the least is an interesting strategic move. During the Patidar agitation he even went to say that the Patidar’s were fooled to vote for the BJP in the name of "Hindu-Muslim polarisation". Apart from running a strong campaign against BJP during his early political career, he had time and again targeted PM Narendra Modi, Home Secretary Amit Shah and denounced BJP’s way of politics. To get a staunch critic like Hardik Patel to side with them is indicative of the massive political influence the saffron party has over the state. Patel’s defection proves that BJP’s dominance on the state will continue to exist and it also sends the message that a good political future is guaranteed in Gujarat only if one joins the BJP.

It’s unclear how much of Hardik Patels’ recent move is going to help BJP attract Patidar youth voters. BJP has always enjoyed a respectable vote share amongst the Patidar community. The BJP retained over 60% Patidar votes in both the 2017 Assembly polls as well as the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, Hardik Patel’s entry into the saffron party is expected to remove possibility of Patidar community’s demand for jobs and agrarian distress remedies from being a major rallying point in the run-up to the state elections. BJP’s efforts to woo Patidar community will only get exacerbated with Hardik Patel’s entry. The saffron party has many leaders who actively support Patidar organisations and the party even appointed Bhupendra Patel as CM in September 2021 targeting the Patidar vote base

AAP is another party which is affected by his defection. In the Surat Municipal Corporation elections, Patel is reported to have tactically backed AAP, and a sizeable part of AAP's support was from Patidars. Patel joining the BJP may reduce AAP’s vote share among Patidars. Since Gujarat is a poll-bound state, the political battle is only going to be get more spicier with increasing defections and betrayals likely to happen in the coming months