Rising fear of Russian invasion, flights to Ukraine canceled

Despite intensive weekend discussions between the Kremlin and the West, some airlines have canceled or redirected flights to Ukraine due to rising fears of a Russian invasion.

President Joe Biden told Russian President Vladimir Putin in an hour-long phone call on Saturday that invading Ukraine would result in "widespread human suffering" and that the West was committed to diplomacy to resolve the crisis, but was "equally prepared for other scenarios," according to the White House. It made no attempt to imply that the appeal lessened the possibility of a European conflict.

The two presidents spoke just one day after Biden's national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, warned that US intelligence indicates a Russian invasion might start within days.

Russia denies that it intends to invade Ukraine, but it has amassed a force of over 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border and has moved troops to neighbouring Belarus for military exercises. According to US authorities, Russia's military buildup has reached the stage where it may invade at any time.

KLM, a Dutch airline, has stopped flights to Ukraine until further notice, according to a statement released on Saturday.

Dutch sensitivity to potential risk in Ukrainian airspace is high in the aftermath of the 2014 shooting down of a Malaysian aircraft over an area of eastern Ukraine occupied by Russia-backed separatists. All 298 passengers and crew members died, including 198 Dutch citizens.

After the plane's Irish lessor claimed it was barring flights in Ukrainian airspace, the Ukrainian charter airline SkyUp said its flight from Madeira, Portugal, to Kyiv was diverted to Chisinau, Moldova.

Ukraine has not blocked its airspace, according to Ukrainian presidential spokesman Serhii Nykyforov. "Some carriers are experiencing difficulties associated with fluctuations in the insurance markets," the Infrastructure Ministry stated in a statement.

The chat between Putin and Biden, which followed a call between Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron earlier in the day, occurred at a key juncture in what has become Russia's and the West's largest security crisis since the Cold War. Officials in the United States feel they only have a few days to prevent an invasion and massive carnage in Ukraine.

While the United States and its NATO partners have no intentions to send troops to Ukraine to combat Russia, an invasion and the ensuing sanctions may have far-reaching consequences that would disrupt energy supply, global markets, and Europe's power balance.

According to the statement released by White House, “President Biden was clear with President Putin that while the United States remains prepared to engage in diplomacy, in full coordination with our Allies and partners, we are equally prepared for other scenarios.” 

Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy aide, said that while tensions have been escalating for months, in recent days “the situation has simply been brought to the point of absurdity.”

Biden addressed future sanctions against Russia, but "this issue was not the focus during a fairly long conversation with the Russian leader," according to him.

The US announced plans to evacuate most of its staff from the embassy in Kiev and asked all American citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately, indicating that officials are preparing for the worst-case scenario. The United Kingdom has joined other European countries in advising its nationals to flee Ukraine.

Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly announced Saturday that Canada has closed its embassy in Kyiv and relocated its diplomatic employees to a temporary location in Lviv, Ukraine's western region. A Ukrainian military post in Lviv has acted as the major hub for Canada's 200-soldier training mission in the former Soviet republic.

“I believe that today in the information space there is a lot of information,” he said.

The timing of any potential Russian military action is still a major concern.

According to a US official familiar with the results, the US received evidence that Russia is targeting Wednesday as a target date. The official, who was not authorised to speak to the press and spoke on the condition of anonymity, would not specify how conclusive the intelligence was.

The Defense Ministry summoned the US Embassy's military attaché on Saturday after the navy detected an American submarine in Russian waters near the Kuril Islands in the Pacific, escalating tensions between the two countries. The submarine refused to leave, but did so when the navy utilised "appropriate means," according to the ministry.

The Pentagon has sent an additional 3,000 US troops to Poland to reassure allies, adding to the sense of panic.

In addition to the more than 100,000 ground troops stationed around Ukraine's eastern and southern borders, US sources say Russia has deployed missile, air, naval, and special operations units, as well as the supplies, needed to continue a conflict. Russia deployed six amphibious assault ships into the Black Sea this week, bolstering its ability to land commandos on the shore.

As a reassurance to allies on NATO's eastern flank, Biden has increased the US military posture in Europe. The 3,000 more soldiers dispatched to Poland come on top of 1,700 who are on their way there. The US Army is also relocating 1,000 troops from Germany to Romania, which shares a border with Ukraine with Poland.

Russia is requesting that the West exclude former Soviet republics from NATO membership. It also wants NATO to stop stationing weapons near its border and withdraw alliance forces from Eastern Europe, demands that the West has firmly rejected.

Since 2014, when Ukraine's Kremlin-friendly president was forced from office by a popular uprising, Russia and Ukraine have been at odds. Moscow retaliated by annexing the Crimean Peninsula and then supporting a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine, where over 14,000 people have been murdered in conflict.

A 2015 peace pact backed by France and Germany helped cease large-scale hostilities, but regular skirmishes have continued, and efforts to establish a political settlement have faltered.

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