Rajya Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh: prelude to NDA vs INDIA clash ahead of Lok Sabha faceoff

As the biennial election for 10 Rajya Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh approaches on February 27, a battleground is set between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Samajwadi Party (SP)-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). Among the 10 retiring members in April, nine belong to the BJP, and one to the SP, intensifying the electoral contest.

Challenging BJP's dominance

In the 2018 elections, the BJP secured nine seats, allegedly through engineered cross-voting by opposition MLAs. However, the political landscape has evolved since the 2022 assembly elections, with the SP's strength rising to 108 MLAs and the INDIA bloc, including the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), having a combined strength of 119 MLAs.

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With changes in the assembly composition, the INDIA bloc, requiring 37 first-preference votes to secure a Rajya Sabha seat, is well-positioned to send three members to the Upper House. Meanwhile, the NDA, with 277 MLAs, can potentially secure seven seats, leaving little room for additional victories.

Key dates and lobbying intensity

The Election Commission of India announced that the election notification would be issued on February 8, with the last date for filing nominations on February 15 and withdrawal on February 20. Polling is scheduled for February 27, with results announced on the same day. The period leading up to February 20 will reveal whether the BJP aims to replicate its 2018 strategy or opts for a more conservative approach by fielding seven candidates.

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As the election date looms, both camps engage in intense lobbying for candidature. The SP emphasizes vigilance against cross-voting, as any discord within the alliance could send a negative message before the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

Nine BJP members, including prominent figures like GVL Narasimha Rao, are set to retire in April, along with lone SP member Jaya Bachchan. The outcome of the Rajya Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh is anticipated to reflect the evolving political dynamics, indicating the shifting power balance between the BJP-led NDA and the SP-led INDIA alliance.